Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Bank teller careers

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But I think that they did.
In his new book on randomness, The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow recounts the results of Kahneman and Tversky's experiment - one of the great classic studies of decision-making. Respondents were given a series of possible occupations for Linda and asked to rank their probability. Is she, for instance, now active in the feminist movement? Does she work in a bookshop and take yoga classes? Is she a bank teller? A teacher? An insurance salesperson? A bank teller who is active in the feminist movement?
Unsurprisingly, given what they were told about Linda, it was thought most likely that she would be active in the feminist movement and least likely that she would be an insurance salesperson. There was, however, an interesting kink in the results. People ranked the likelihood of Linda being a bank teller active in the feminist movement higher than the probability that she is merely a bank teller




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